Israel’s Arab Parties Could Decide the Next Prime Minister
Israel’s latest election has ended without a clear winner. The two main political blocs are both short of the 61 seats needed to control the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. That deadlock has pushed a group that is often kept on the sidelines into the center of the story: the Arab parties.
Together, the two main Arab parties hold 19 seats. Ra’am and the Joint List are separate groups, but their combined strength is now large enough to tip the balance. In a parliament of 120 members, 19 seats can decide who forms the next government.
Why the Numbers Matter
Israeli governments usually rest on a majority of at least 61 seats. When the two big blocs fall short, smaller parties gain unusual power. They can block a government, or they can help build one.
This is where the Arab parties come in. If they support a candidate for prime minister, that candidate may reach the needed majority. If they refuse, a rival bloc may be unable to govern at all.
Eisenkot and the Challenge to Netanyahu
One possible challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who is now in the opposition. Reports suggest he could try to form a government with help from the Arab parties.
That would be a major change in Israeli politics. For years, many Jewish politicians have refused to work with Arab parties. Some still reject the idea today. They argue that Arab parties do not share the same goals for the country.
Ahmad Tibi’s Offer
Ahmad Tibi, a senior Arab lawmaker, has offered help for a minority government. A minority government is one that does not have a full majority in parliament. Instead, it relies on outside support for key votes.
This kind of arrangement is unusual in Israel. But in a deadlock, it may be one of the few paths forward. Tibi’s offer gives opposition leaders an option they did not have before.
Background: A Long History of Exclusion
Arab citizens make up about one fifth of Israel’s population. They vote for their own parties, which focus on issues such as equality, housing and local services. Yet for decades, Arab parties were largely left out of government.
That changed in 2021, when Ra’am joined a coalition government for the first time. The experiment was short-lived, but it showed that Arab parties could play a direct role in governing.
What Happens Next
The next step is for Israel’s president to consult party leaders and choose someone to try to form a government. That person usually has several weeks to build a coalition.
If they fail, the president may ask another candidate. If no one succeeds, Israel could face another election. That would be a costly outcome for voters who are tired of repeated campaigns.
For investors, the key point is uncertainty. Political deadlock can delay budget decisions and slow economic policy. A stable government, whatever its shape, would reduce that risk.
The Bigger Picture
The debate over Arab parties is really a debate about what kind of coalition Israel can accept. If Arab support becomes normal, Israeli politics could change for years to come. If it remains rejected, the deadlock may continue.
Either way, the 19 seats held by Ra’am and the Joint List are now among the most important in the country. They may not lead the next government, but they could decide who does.
